European Worries Weigh on Global Markets

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European Worries Weigh on Global Markets

Karl Schamota, Custom House Foreign Exchange - Calgary Office

Traders scurried for the exits this morning after numbers were released showing that Greece’s 2009 deficit was worse than the government had forecast. A shortfall totaling 13.6% of GDP was recorded, increasing the likelihood that the Greek government will trigger a bailout package from other European Union members. The Greek finance minister, George Papaconstantinou, told reporters that negotiations on a possible bailout would take at least two weeks to conclude. Greek bond yields have now hit pre-Euro highs, with investors expressing skepticism about the bailout. A restructuring of Greek obligations seems likely, which would hand significant losses to creditors.

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BOC Keeps Policy Rate Unchanged

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Q: You always say use no leverage, but how are you going to grow your account with out it???

A: "Traders can take whatever risk profile they desire. I promote "no leverage" as an extreme to drive a point home, realizing that 99% of traders will take on leverage. Of those who I have mentored that have become full time traders, every one has had very tight risk control, leveraged or not. Leverage and over trading are the two main killers of new traders, eliminating the chances of success for perfectly capable and intelligent individuals. Set a good risk profile for yourself. If you can't trade micro lots successfully, you will not trade leveraged capital successfully."

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EURUSD Relatively Subdued

We still like Short JPY against High Yielders - Pullback welcome!

EURUSD has been relatively subdued following the announcement of the terms of the proposed aid package to Greece as investors still remain uncertain whether or if Greece will choose to ask for aid. Highlight a note by UBS European fixed income team in which they describe potential deficit effects of the EMU/IMF plan. Should the current plan be utilized, investors could remain wary on the euro as the plan could pressure other high deficit member nations.

The proposed package is larger than was initially envisaged by many market participants, though the rate of around 5% for the EMU portion of the loans does not appear particularly advantageous for Greece from the point of view of longer term fiscal sustainability. Reports suggest that the plan in its current format will use the capital weightings of Euro area governments at the ECB as a guideline for the individual states' contributions to the €30bn Eurozone component of the package. Read More...