BIS Annual Report
30/06/09 20:45
Chris will be appearing at the Las Vegas
Money Show
Aug 2-4
The VIX index has now fallen back to levels last seen prior to the events of September 2008, but whether this can be justified due to ongoing difficulties in funding markets is questionable. At at the height of the crisis, the USD and JPY movements were closely tied to VIX. The JPY and carry trade like stable markets as a criteria and as maraket uncertainty and volatility (VIX) rise, funds repatriation strengthens the USD and JPY on repatriation flows.
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Aug 2-4
The VIX index has now fallen back to levels last seen prior to the events of September 2008, but whether this can be justified due to ongoing difficulties in funding markets is questionable. At at the height of the crisis, the USD and JPY movements were closely tied to VIX. The JPY and carry trade like stable markets as a criteria and as maraket uncertainty and volatility (VIX) rise, funds repatriation strengthens the USD and JPY on repatriation flows.
Read More...
ECB Widely Expected to Keep Rates on Hold
23/06/09 20:40
Chris
Lori Professional Workshop
Auckland, NZ
Aug 14-16
Great Bonuses!
Chris Lori's Products and Services visit:
www.protradersclub.com
Chris will be appearing at the Las Vegas Money Show
Aug 2-4
The [ECB WEBER] has warned banks that they have to pass on lower rates of interest to their customers. Note, the ECB refi rate currently stands at just 1%, with the most recent cut being seen on May 7th (-25bp). The ECB are now widely expected to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2009.This means the likelihood of QE in the forseable future is diminishing as EUR rallies.
Yesterday's nervousness serves as a timely reminder that talk of green shoots or even exit strategies for central banks are highly premature. "Greern Shoot's" is well overrated, in my opinion and serves the media cheerleaders feel good slant to maintain viewership and gives them something to talk about. Commodities also slumped and the FOMC now faces the unwelcome prospect of trying to reassure markets that there is still cause for optimism, while only a few weeks ago it was under scrutiny for failing to contain debasement fears in the face of a global economic recovery. The market took notice of the World Bank's downward revisions to global growth yesterday, as the new outlook for a contraction of 2.9% was well below the 1.7% envisaged in March. The World Bank warned that it saw a deeper global economic recession this year and called for more 'bold' policies and coordination. Stay tuned! Most importantly, it noted that the recovery would be 'much more subdued' than normal, and we believe the FOMC will express similar views in its post-meeting statement this week. Read More...
Auckland, NZ
Aug 14-16
Great Bonuses!
Chris Lori's Products and Services visit:
www.protradersclub.com
Chris will be appearing at the Las Vegas Money Show
Aug 2-4
The [ECB WEBER] has warned banks that they have to pass on lower rates of interest to their customers. Note, the ECB refi rate currently stands at just 1%, with the most recent cut being seen on May 7th (-25bp). The ECB are now widely expected to keep rates on hold for the rest of 2009.This means the likelihood of QE in the forseable future is diminishing as EUR rallies.
Yesterday's nervousness serves as a timely reminder that talk of green shoots or even exit strategies for central banks are highly premature. "Greern Shoot's" is well overrated, in my opinion and serves the media cheerleaders feel good slant to maintain viewership and gives them something to talk about. Commodities also slumped and the FOMC now faces the unwelcome prospect of trying to reassure markets that there is still cause for optimism, while only a few weeks ago it was under scrutiny for failing to contain debasement fears in the face of a global economic recovery. The market took notice of the World Bank's downward revisions to global growth yesterday, as the new outlook for a contraction of 2.9% was well below the 1.7% envisaged in March. The World Bank warned that it saw a deeper global economic recession this year and called for more 'bold' policies and coordination. Stay tuned! Most importantly, it noted that the recovery would be 'much more subdued' than normal, and we believe the FOMC will express similar views in its post-meeting statement this week. Read More...
Financial Markets Currently in Limbo
17/06/09 19:40
Chris Lori Professional Workshop
Auckland, NZ
Aug 14-16
Chris Lori's Products and Services visit:
www.protradersclub.com
Chris will be appearing at the Las Vegas Money Show
Aug 2-4
Inflation breakevens for the US have come off sharply over the past few sessions, suggesting the Fed's efforts in steering discourse towards exit strategies have been successful. While Russia was calling for a new global reserve currency, the actual BRIC summit communiqué stopped short of discussing the US dollar. The USD reserve currency story should pass over time while the market finds something else to focus on. At this point calls for a new reserve currency are academic.
As for trade recommendations - The financial markets are currently in limbo as is sentiment on USD. I anticipate that over the next 1-3 months we may see a lack of enthusiasm for risk, thus resulting in modest USD strength. This view may change as the market treads water, at present. I remain bullish USDCAD at current levels and bearish AUDUSD as long as we see USD stable to weak. Read More...
Auckland, NZ
Aug 14-16
Chris Lori's Products and Services visit:
www.protradersclub.com
Chris will be appearing at the Las Vegas Money Show
Aug 2-4
Inflation breakevens for the US have come off sharply over the past few sessions, suggesting the Fed's efforts in steering discourse towards exit strategies have been successful. While Russia was calling for a new global reserve currency, the actual BRIC summit communiqué stopped short of discussing the US dollar. The USD reserve currency story should pass over time while the market finds something else to focus on. At this point calls for a new reserve currency are academic.
As for trade recommendations - The financial markets are currently in limbo as is sentiment on USD. I anticipate that over the next 1-3 months we may see a lack of enthusiasm for risk, thus resulting in modest USD strength. This view may change as the market treads water, at present. I remain bullish USDCAD at current levels and bearish AUDUSD as long as we see USD stable to weak. Read More...
USD bears should be wary of selling
10/06/09 15:00
G3: on a long term basis the EUR continues to look overvalued against both the USD and JPY. Its recent overshooting against both currencies has been driven by the rebound in risk assets since March and concerns over America's credit ratings. But Euro zone officials again voiced concern over the level of the EUR last week above 1.40 while the deteriorating fiscal picture in Latvia has raised the risks of devaluations in Eastern Europe. The key data releases to watch this week will be US retail sales and Euro zone inflation data. We think the EUR will struggle at its current elevated levels following last week's US payrolls data and European warnings on exchange rates. In addition, the upcoming G8 finance ministers meeting in Lecce, Italy on June 12-13 may give further opportunities for official comments on currencies.
Europe: Sterling has been hurt by UK political uncertainty. PM Brown's position remains tenuous following the weekend European election results. This will keep dragging on the GBP now. Elsewhere in Europe, the SEK is also likely to stay under pressure given devaluation concerns in Latvia while the CHF faces the risk that the SNB surprises the market again at its board meeting next week on June 18. The NOK however should benefit against the SEK and GBP if this week's inflation data in Norway doesn't disappoint the market
Commodity Bloc: The commodity currencies were all hit last week by the rebound in the USD. This week RBNZ meets and our economists are in a minority expecting a 25bps cut. This would support the AUDNZD cross further. We also still prefer AUDCAD to trade higher after the Bank of Canada noted CAD strength as a risk to its outlook last week but 0.90 will be important resistance.
Jobless Rate, a sign of the times
07/06/09 23:02
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to trade from a Professional
Chris Lori, CTA
Auckland, New Zealand
August 14-16
Chris Lori will be speaking at the Las Vegas Money Show on "Psychology and Risk," Aug 4 at 10am.
Join Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club," see how the pro's trade and view the market. No Selling, just pure market action and analysis.
USDCAD has rallied from our 1.0990 levels ref'd in the last forex notes, while other majors have moved as we anticipated. We have another data filled week that can cause rip current in the market.
The US dollar rallied sharply on Friday boosted by non-farm payrolls, which showed jobs disappearing at a rate less than the market feared. EURUSD traded from a session high of 1.4269 down to a session low of 1.3970, while USDJPY traded up to a high of 98.21 from a low of 96.55. Equity markets finished the session slightly lower, as the market feared the Fed lifting rates this year. Reflecting those tightening fears, 2-year Treasury yields surged by 35bp to 1.29%, while 10-year Treasury yields rose by 13bp. Meanwhile, 10-year inflation expectations as captured by the TIP bond spread rose by 7bp. That is real yields in the US for the 10-year rose by roughly 5bp. Read More...
Chris Lori, CTA
Auckland, New Zealand
August 14-16
Chris Lori will be speaking at the Las Vegas Money Show on "Psychology and Risk," Aug 4 at 10am.
Join Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club," see how the pro's trade and view the market. No Selling, just pure market action and analysis.
USDCAD has rallied from our 1.0990 levels ref'd in the last forex notes, while other majors have moved as we anticipated. We have another data filled week that can cause rip current in the market.
The US dollar rallied sharply on Friday boosted by non-farm payrolls, which showed jobs disappearing at a rate less than the market feared. EURUSD traded from a session high of 1.4269 down to a session low of 1.3970, while USDJPY traded up to a high of 98.21 from a low of 96.55. Equity markets finished the session slightly lower, as the market feared the Fed lifting rates this year. Reflecting those tightening fears, 2-year Treasury yields surged by 35bp to 1.29%, while 10-year Treasury yields rose by 13bp. Meanwhile, 10-year inflation expectations as captured by the TIP bond spread rose by 7bp. That is real yields in the US for the 10-year rose by roughly 5bp. Read More...
Central Bank Positioning Refresh
04/06/09 21:37
Chris Lori will be speaking at the Las Vegas
Money Show on "Psychology and Risk," Aug 4 at 10am.
Join Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club," see how the pro's trade and view the market. No Selling, just pure market action and analysis.
In reference to my previous Forex Notes and in great detail in Pro Traders Club, I had anticipated a pullback on EUR/USD ahead of the midweek data, which played out with frightening accuracy. I'm glad i'm on my side of the trades. This is a common pattern prior to a cluster of impactful data releases. It is often preceeded by one final false more higher/lower followed by a flurry of profit taking by funds and institutions. I will detail the reasons for this in Pro Traders Club, and please remind me if i forget.
The BoE and later on the BoC left rates unchanged, and so did the ECB, keeping its refinancing rate at 1%. Interestingly, President Trichet went out of his way to stress that an exit strategy was appropriate once the economy started to turn around. This raises the risk that the ECB moves too quickly and nips the so-called 'green shoots' in the bud, in our view. Trichet said 'it is very important the US is repeating a strong US dollar policy', and Eurogroup chief Claude Juncker added that 'a further EUR increase was not welcome'
Read More...
Join Chris Lori's "Pro Traders Club," see how the pro's trade and view the market. No Selling, just pure market action and analysis.
In reference to my previous Forex Notes and in great detail in Pro Traders Club, I had anticipated a pullback on EUR/USD ahead of the midweek data, which played out with frightening accuracy. I'm glad i'm on my side of the trades. This is a common pattern prior to a cluster of impactful data releases. It is often preceeded by one final false more higher/lower followed by a flurry of profit taking by funds and institutions. I will detail the reasons for this in Pro Traders Club, and please remind me if i forget.
The BoE and later on the BoC left rates unchanged, and so did the ECB, keeping its refinancing rate at 1%. Interestingly, President Trichet went out of his way to stress that an exit strategy was appropriate once the economy started to turn around. This raises the risk that the ECB moves too quickly and nips the so-called 'green shoots' in the bud, in our view. Trichet said 'it is very important the US is repeating a strong US dollar policy', and Eurogroup chief Claude Juncker added that 'a further EUR increase was not welcome'
Read More...
USD Selling May Ease into Late Week Data
02/06/09 19:27
Hello Traders,
As a notice, Chris Lori CTA, will be speaking on "Psychology and Risk" at the Las Vegas Money Show Aug 4 at 10am. Chris will address the hard facts of FX trading, Funds Management, Psychology and Risk Management in hard nosed presentation.
The Fed said they would announce during the week of June 8 a list of US banks that have been approved to pay back TARP funds. Government officials said banks must first show the ability to raise money from private investors without FDIC guarantees as one of the conditions for being allowed to repay TARP funds. Several financial institutions have apparently heeded the government's guidance by announcing unexpected plans to sell equity. As expected, a major General Motors went into bankruptcy. However, behind-the-scenes negotiations regarding the terms have been taking place for sometime now and proceedings are expected to be completed relatively quickly. As such, this is not expected to have as great an impact on market sentiment as when worries first emerged. In other news, the upcoming June 16 BRIC summit is garnering more attention. The press reported that the Kremlin said they may discuss the idea of a supra-national world currency at the summit and this report comes on the back of a similar comment from a Brazilian official. Read More...
As a notice, Chris Lori CTA, will be speaking on "Psychology and Risk" at the Las Vegas Money Show Aug 4 at 10am. Chris will address the hard facts of FX trading, Funds Management, Psychology and Risk Management in hard nosed presentation.
The Fed said they would announce during the week of June 8 a list of US banks that have been approved to pay back TARP funds. Government officials said banks must first show the ability to raise money from private investors without FDIC guarantees as one of the conditions for being allowed to repay TARP funds. Several financial institutions have apparently heeded the government's guidance by announcing unexpected plans to sell equity. As expected, a major General Motors went into bankruptcy. However, behind-the-scenes negotiations regarding the terms have been taking place for sometime now and proceedings are expected to be completed relatively quickly. As such, this is not expected to have as great an impact on market sentiment as when worries first emerged. In other news, the upcoming June 16 BRIC summit is garnering more attention. The press reported that the Kremlin said they may discuss the idea of a supra-national world currency at the summit and this report comes on the back of a similar comment from a Brazilian official. Read More...