So, how close are we to intervention?
21/10/09 20:30
It was a pleasure to be involved in the CompassFX
Traders Summit last week. I had just returned from a
trip to Asia the day before, but managed to get
organized to speak at the event. I enjoy dedicating
time to training in this business, but it is
sometimes frustrating. I believe that my
qualifications and extensive institutional experience
in this business can be of tremendous value to those
willing to take on this business with the respect and
the attention it warrants. With respect to persons
new in this business, we call "developing traders,"
we see common patterns. We call it the "Just tell me
where to get in" syndrome. Developing traders run
around aimlessly looking for the magic formula, the
holy grail, the golden goose, the thing that is going
to do the thinking for them so they don't have to
think for themselves. Folks, to succeed over the long
term in this business, it goes much much deeper than
that and requires much more.
To know what is really required to succeed, you can start by viewing my latest webinar on Psychology and Risk and work from there.
Forex Notes
The Eurogroup meeting 'on the euro' Monday yielded very little of substance, but comments outside the forum suggest concern is mounting. As the November G20 approaches, Eurogroup finance ministers are expected to voice their displeasure at current FX levels, and the Eurozone's key policymakers are heading to Asia by year-end to press their case. So, how close are we to intervention? Looking back at the developments which unfolded just prior to the ECB's last foray in markets in 2000, we are probably some distance from that step. Read More...
To know what is really required to succeed, you can start by viewing my latest webinar on Psychology and Risk and work from there.
Forex Notes
The Eurogroup meeting 'on the euro' Monday yielded very little of substance, but comments outside the forum suggest concern is mounting. As the November G20 approaches, Eurogroup finance ministers are expected to voice their displeasure at current FX levels, and the Eurozone's key policymakers are heading to Asia by year-end to press their case. So, how close are we to intervention? Looking back at the developments which unfolded just prior to the ECB's last foray in markets in 2000, we are probably some distance from that step. Read More...
Fed Dovish
15/10/09 08:11
FED Dovish
The US dollar was hit by surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes as several policymakers spoke in favour of increasing the MBS purchase limit beyond the current ceiling of $1.25 trn. Only a few weeks ago, there was some speculation that the program would be cut short prematurely, even before that limit was reached. Mixed views about inflation were also expressed, but the majority of the FOMC felt it would be subdued ahead. The minutes clearly indicate the FOMC is a long way from tightening and balance sheet reduction does not appear to be a policy priority either.
Strong Q3 earnings reports from the US financial sector and better than expected retail sales also kept the dollar under pressure. September US retail sales fell 1.5% m/m - a better outcome than the 2.1% m/m drop expected by consensus. Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.5% m/m in September, also beating the consensus expectation of a 0.2% m/m rise. Read More...
The US dollar was hit by surprisingly dovish FOMC minutes as several policymakers spoke in favour of increasing the MBS purchase limit beyond the current ceiling of $1.25 trn. Only a few weeks ago, there was some speculation that the program would be cut short prematurely, even before that limit was reached. Mixed views about inflation were also expressed, but the majority of the FOMC felt it would be subdued ahead. The minutes clearly indicate the FOMC is a long way from tightening and balance sheet reduction does not appear to be a policy priority either.
Strong Q3 earnings reports from the US financial sector and better than expected retail sales also kept the dollar under pressure. September US retail sales fell 1.5% m/m - a better outcome than the 2.1% m/m drop expected by consensus. Retail sales ex-autos rose 0.5% m/m in September, also beating the consensus expectation of a 0.2% m/m rise. Read More...
Treasury Purchases and China
14/10/09 19:54
Hello Traders
I have been away on a work related visit to Kuala Lumpur and Singapore and apologize for lack of updates to the page. I would like to start with the commentary below from UBS regarding Treasury purchases and China.
Reserve growth and diversification is in the spotlight once again as China's Q3 reserve growth figures were released overnight, coming in at $141bln, one of the largest quarterly gains on record. September inflows alone were $61.8bln. Adjusted for valuation, it is conceivable that capital inflows have accounted for a significant portion of FX reserve growth in China. Before the financial crisis, these flows - likely seeking to capture significant asset price gains domestically. Read More...
I have been away on a work related visit to Kuala Lumpur and Singapore and apologize for lack of updates to the page. I would like to start with the commentary below from UBS regarding Treasury purchases and China.
Reserve growth and diversification is in the spotlight once again as China's Q3 reserve growth figures were released overnight, coming in at $141bln, one of the largest quarterly gains on record. September inflows alone were $61.8bln. Adjusted for valuation, it is conceivable that capital inflows have accounted for a significant portion of FX reserve growth in China. Before the financial crisis, these flows - likely seeking to capture significant asset price gains domestically. Read More...